Book Review | Numbers Don't Lie
- Greg McNeilly
- Apr 24, 2022
- 3 min read
Updated: Mar 23
NUMBERS DON’T LIE: 71 Stories to Help Us Understand the Modern World | Vaclav Smil, Penguin Books (2020), 368p.
When Bill Gates writes that Vaclav Smil is “my favorite author,” that’s an endorsement generating interest. Most living authors could not imagine a better book blurb endorsement other than maybe Oprah. Yet, Gates couldn’t check his snobbery and added to his quip: Smil is “often too detailed or obscure for a general audience,” noting he knows most of his friends won’t read any of his books.
Gates is excited about his latest book, Smil’s “Numbers Don’t Lie,” which he describes as his “most accessible.”
Whew. It’s a book for the rest of us.
“Numbers Don’t Lie: 71 Stories to Help Us Understand the Modern World” is a collection of small essays tackling a range of subjects, including vaccinations, evolution, misconceptions about the impact of wind turbines, the environmental impact of cars, population, cellphones, diesel fuel, and the unreliability of unemployment figures.
The mathematician, scientist, and Professor-emeritus Vaclav Smil is a prolific author, publishing over 41 tomes and hundreds of research papers. Smil often adds a meticulous historical context to each subject regardless of the topic.
He clusters his topics in seven themes: “People,” “Countries,” “Machines, Designs & Devices,” “Fuels and Electricity,” “Transport,” “Food,” and “Environment.”
Smil’s penchant for history and adherence to the scientific method imbues his writings with an uncommon humility regarding the promise of our modern age.
He presents evidence to suggest that the single greatest (ill-defined) decade of innovation and technological advancement was the 1880s. One can quibble with the definition of indexes, but readers are left in awe at the plinth of technology lain down in this decennium upon which we rely.
In another article, Smil charts the general length and duration of “empires.” History has demonstrated that they come and go but have a duration of 220 years. Another stimulating chapter outlines a rapidly rising empire (Japan) and a slowly rising empire (Great Britain). Both with longevity converse to their rate of growth or growth. He then compares both to modern-day China and India, leaving the reader to discern which will have lasting power.
He tackles many other questions like:
• How many people did it take to build the pyramids?
• Why do humans sweat and other mammals don’t? (Spoiler: it gave us a tremendous survival advantage.)
• What would make a country exceptional? (And are there any?)
• Why is diesel better?
• What’s worse for the planet – your car or cell phone?
• Why are triple-pane windows the best kind of investment?
Smil is not a robot. His numbers don’t flow forth without context or bias. At times, an enviable curmudgeon tone seeps out. For instance, he intones, “…although most people lost in their ephemeral tweets and Facebook gossip are not even remotely aware of the true scope of this quotidian debt.” He’s no doubt right.
Smil argues that nuclear energy is a “glorious failure” that doesn’t live up to its potential or hype. He also provides data that contradicts Bill Gates’ position.
Smil argues that nuclear energy is a “glorious failure” that doesn’t live up to its potential or hype. He also provides data that contradicts Bill Gates’ position.
Smil concludes, “Numbers don’t lie, but which truth do they covey?” He advises that even facts often fail to convey the underlying truth until accounted for in the broadest context possible. Smil warns, “Rigid ranking based on minuscule differences misleads rather than informs…Doubt, caution, and incessant questioning are in order.” Indeed.
Putting aside Gates’ misplaced elitism, readers of Smil’s “Numbers” will find that the data he prescribes challenges some heartily held beliefs. Such books benefit us all.
