BOOKS | THE FOURTH TURNING IS HERE | Neil Howe, Simon & Schuster, (2023) 587p.
If you read only one book this year, make it this one.
Neil Howe’s theory interprets history as a series of repeating cycles, commonly referred to as the “Saeculum” view. This perspective suggests that history operates in cycles, each spanning approximately a long human life (80 to 100 years).
About four generations coexist at any moment, each influencing and shaping events.
In Howe's model, a Saeculum comprises four distinct turnings, or generational eras, each lasting approximately 20-22 years (roughly the time it takes for a new generation to come of age). These turnings are:
High – A post-crisis era of strong institutions, societal unity, and collective confidence. Society has a strong belief in the importance of community and collective action. This period often follows a crisis and sees the rebuilding or solidification of societal structures.
Awakening – A time of cultural or spiritual renewal. This is when the younger generation begins to rebel against established norms, leading to a societal focus on individualism and self-expression.
Unraveling – An era of increasing individualism and weakening institutions. The societal fabric wears thin, leading to increasing disunity and strife. The established order is increasingly challenged, and there's a feeling of being adrift or without a clear direction.
Crisis – A decisive era of secular upheaval, where a new one replaces the old order. This period can include major events like wars, revolutions, or financial crashes. The outcome of this turning determines the values and direction of the following High.
According to Howe's model, we are in the middle of a Crisis period that should last another decade. The good news remains that a high will follow a Crisis as spring follows winter.
However, these periods of crisis (the Glorious Revolution, the American Revolution, the Civil War, and WWII) were not easy. During a Crisis period:
Institutional Crisis: Existing institutions appear weak and are distrusted. They either get significantly reformed or replaced. They feel they aren't effectively solving society's most pressing issues.
Sense of Urgency: There's a widespread perception that a crisis threatens the survival of the society or way of life. This might manifest as economic distress, wars, social upheaval, etc.
Community Cohesion: Despite, or perhaps because of, the Crisis, people come together. They often become more collective-minded and willing to sacrifice individual goals for the greater good. This starkly contrasts the individualism that typifies the Unraveling phase that precedes the Crisis.
Strong Leadership: The society looks for and sometimes finds forceful leaders with a new vision to guide the nation through the Crisis. These leaders might implement sweeping reforms.
Decisive Action: Society feels pressured to take decisive action to resolve the Crisis. This might involve wars, revolutions, or other significant endeavors that require collective effort.
Cultural Shift: The values, norms, and priorities of society often undergo a significant transformation during this period.
Resolution and New Order: By the end of the Crisis, the critical issues are typically resolved, though not always in a way that all members of the society find satisfactory. The resolution then sets the stage for the next High period.
Because the interplay of generations follows an observable pattern, Howe and others see specific personas that emerge and become hallmarks of generations. Think of the oft-noted phrase, "Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And weak men create hard times. “
These turnings are not just chronological periods but are also associated with generational archetypes that play specific roles:
Prophet – Born during a High, they grow up as the increasingly indulged children of the post-crisis era, come of age during an Awakening, and become the elderly leaders during a Crisis. (Boomers)
Nomads – Born during an Awakening, they grow up as under-protected children, come of age during an Unraveling, and become midlife leaders during a Crisis. (Gen X)
Hero – Born during an Unraveling, they grow up as increasingly protected post-Awakening children, come of age during a Crisis, and become elderly leaders during the subsequent High. (Millennial)
Artists – Born during a Crisis, they grow up as the overprotected children of the post-crisis world, come of age during a High, and are the midlife leaders during an Awakening. (Homeland or Gen Z)
There is undoubtedly a greater probability than zero that we will experience a major war, internal conflict, or massive recession in the next ten years. Understanding forces that might drive these periods of events is always helpful, as are reflections that lend themselves to greater preparation, resiliency, and grit to thrive amidst such adversity.
Nevertheless, history is not predetermined. We make choices. Howe's work, particularly when looking at the attributes of generations or historical events, has - by necessity- some amount of cherry-picking involved. Additionally, given the vagaries of technology and human interactions, straight-line trends seldom self-execute without unpredictable swerves and curves.
Grab a copy of this tome, consume, reflect and prepare.
A study outline can be found here. saeculum_matrix.pdf