An irregular round-up of interesting reads.  Most of these made me go "hmmmmm," none of them imply concurrence:

Quote of the Day:

Many whose sense of morality is offended by large economic disparities among individuals, groups, and nations tend to see the causes of these differences as “advantages” or “privileges” that some people have over others. But it is crucial to make a distinction between achievements and privileges. This is not simply a matter of semantics. Privileges come at the expense of others, but achievements add to the benefits of others.
- Thomas Sowell

• Regarding AI, research suggests the use case falls roughly into two camps.
• In tough times, non-conformists outperform groupthink.  A casual knowledge of history would confirm this as well.
• Conversational dynamics can predict a negotiation outcome.
• More evidence debunking the lipid-hypothesis is found.  Eat eggs!
• Entrepreneurial short-term thinking reduces growth by 5%.
• Common sense confirmed yet again across almost a dozen cultures: attractive people are found more likable.
• More confirmed common sense:  The smarter you are, the better at your job.
• Evidence suggests that anti-natalists (those opposed to having children) are more likely to exhibit personality traits known as the Dark Triad.
• New research demonstrates the failed “affordable housing” mandates that cities often promote.
• An awesome read: the Techno-Optimist-Manifesto.
• Cancel culture kills.
• Good news!  C02 emissions at the lowest level in nearly 200 years.
• The financial advantages of being in a union is nearly gone – and when the dues are netted against the dues plus productivity losses – Unions cost their members more than they help.  Fact.
• The global economy continues to send troubling signals for a less than secure near-term future.
• Hurricane Katrina’s impact on student achievement appears to have been positive (well, not the hurricane per, se but the government school reforms that ensued).
• Post-college careers for athletes appear to have some advantages over non-athletes – no revenge of the nerds.
• Aside from lowering the probability of disadvantaged students graduating, teacher strikes correlate to -.0015 percent drop per day of a teacher strike.
• Graphing the fav/unfavs of the federal agencies.  We see you, DOJ, near the bottom.
• This year’s Economics Nobel Prize winner argues that the “gender gap” barely exists, and where it does results not from discrimination but other dynamics.  Read about her research here.
• An essay on how viewpoints of “structural racism” inhibit moral reasoning seeks to explain the current silence on Hamas.
• Staggering plunge in the birth rate for CCCP China.
• George Will outlines how judges keep undermining the 14th Amendment.
• More evidence that “free play” is important in human development.
• Of course, scholars have charted the tit-for-tat between Israelis and anti-Israelis.

An irregular round-up of interesting reads.  Most of these made me go "hmmmmm," none of them imply concurrence:

Quote of the Day:

We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented. Sometimes, we must interfere. When human lives are endangered, when human dignity is in jeopardy, national borders and sensitivities become irrelevant. Wherever men or women are persecuted because of their race, religion, or political views, that place must – at that moment – become the center of the universe.
-Elie Wiesel, “Night.”

Round-up:

• Need a template on how to address a university body, here it is from the University of Florida.
• Taxing businesses hurts workers the most, according to the data.
• The emboldening impact of belief providing confidence for greater non-moral risk-taking is studied.
• Charting the residents of Judea over time.
• Kidnapping and killing children were strategic aims and goals pre-planned by Hamas, according to new research.
• More evidence government COVID lockdowns harmed people’s mental health.
• The evidence is very counter-narrative:  Unionization levels are inversely related to the size of the middle class.
• Counter-narrative facts on U.S. taxpayers.
• Immoral Equivalence -  well said.
• More evidence that school choice programs help remedy the systemic disparities developed by the traditional government school system.
• Legalizing marijuana has a disparate impact on communities, along the lines common sense predicts, according to new research.
• Reflections on the ills of modernity as an offensive weapon.
• ​Who runs the best government school systems?  Evidence suggests the military.
• Revisiting the overstated economic impacts of climate change.
• Inflation, the Infant Terrible birthed by our Federal Government.
• The anti-American consumer crusade the FTC continues to wage is a real choice killer.

An irregular round up of interesting reads.  Most of these made me go "hmmmmm," none of them imply concurrence:

QUOTE OF THE DAY:
The Antitrust laws—an unenforceable, uncompliable, unjudicable mess of contradictions—have for decades kept American businessmen under a silent, growing reign of terror. Yet these laws were created and, to this day, are upheld by the “conservatives,” as a grim monument to their lack of political philosophy, of economic knowledge and of any concern with principles. Under the Antitrust laws, a man becomes a criminal from the moment he goes into business, no matter what he does. For instance, if he charges prices which some bureaucrats judge as too high, he can be prosecuted for monopoly or for a successful “intent to monopolize”; if he charges prices lower than those of his competitors, he can be prosecuted for “unfair competition” or “restraint of trade”; and if he charges the same prices as his competitors, he can be prosecuted for “collusion” or “conspiracy.” There is only one difference in the legal treatment accorded to a criminal or to a businessman: the criminal’s rights are protected much more securely and objectively than the businessman’s. - Ayn Rand

Today's quote comes to mind in the context of the nutty FTC-led "anti-trust" charges in the headlines. 

• New study suggests a cause (and hints at a therapy) for ADHD and autism.
• Charting the internet-addiction spectrum.
• A round-up of work-from-home trends, data and impact.  Most of the data is essentially polling, not empirical evidence, nevertheless that the value of WFM is reported by team members as equivalent to 8% of their income is of note. 
• A good reminder when reading social “science” studies: 60% of them cannot be replicated.  Meaning, their informative not definitive.
• For those whose believe that disparate impacts (correlation = causation) are dispositive, then the evidence is now clear that the IRS is a racist government agency.
• The evidence continues to demonstrate the liberals are challenged at being “good” or empathic people.
• However, the troubling signal that partisan schadenfreude is on the rise.  Abuse of power is directly correlated to the availability of power.
• Two-parent families apparently provide higher income mobility probability to children.
• Ditch the phone.  Evidence that even in social situations it distracts and retards the benefits of prosocial interactions.
• The Law of Attraction or value of anti-diverse social interaction remains founded in reality.
• Fiscal hypocrites are a bipartisan problem, “we the people,” created.
• Critical review of Ibram X. Kendi’s reductionist racism mounts.
• Higher Ed bloat?  Some cut options.
• Shocker.  When you pay people not to work – they don’t.
• The case against the Jones Act.
• Three questions for the man who lied to Congress, who is commonly called Dr. Fauci.
• The corruption of “science” and “medicine.”

BOOKS | THE FOURTH TURNING IS HERE | Neil Howe, Simon & Schuster, (2023) 587p.

If you read only one book this year, make it this one.   

Neil Howe’s theory interprets history as a series of repeating cycles, commonly referred to as the “Saeculum” view.  This perspective suggests that history operates in cycles, each spanning approximately a long human life (80 to 100 years). 

At any moment, about four generations coexist, each influencing and shaping events. 

In Howe's model, a Saeculum comprises four distinct turnings, or generational eras, each lasting approximately 20-22 years (roughly the time it takes for a new generation to come of age).  These turnings are:

• High – A post-crisis era of strong institutions, societal unity, and collective confidence.  Society has a strong belief in the importance of community and collective action.  This period often follows a crisis and sees the rebuilding or solidification of societal structures.
• Awakening – A time of cultural or spiritual renewal.  This is when the younger generation begins to rebel against established norms, leading to a societal focus on individualism and self-expression.
• Unraveling – An era of increasing individualism and weakening institutions.  The societal fabric starts to wear thin, leading to increasing disunity and strife.  The established order is increasingly challenged, and there's a feeling of being adrift or without a clear direction.
• Crisis – A decisive era of secular upheaval, where a new one replaces the old order.  This period can include major events like wars, revolutions, or financial crashes.  The outcome of this turning determines the values and direction of the following High.

According to Howe's model, we are in the middle of a Crisis period that should last another decade.  The good news remains that a high will follow a Crisis as spring follows winter. 
However, these Crisis periods (Glorious Revolution, American Revolution, Civil War, WWII) are not easy.  During a Crisis period:

• Institutional Crisis: Existing institutions appear weak and are distrusted.  They either get significantly reformed or replaced.  They feel they aren't effectively solving society's most pressing issues.
• Sense of Urgency: There's a widespread perception that a crisis threatens the survival of the society or way of life.  This might manifest as economic distress, wars, social upheaval, etc.
• Community Cohesion: Despite, or perhaps because of, the Crisis, people come together.  They often become more collective-minded and willing to sacrifice individual goals for the greater good.  This starkly contrasts the individualism that typifies the Unraveling phase that precedes the Crisis.
• Strong Leadership: The society looks for and sometimes finds forceful leaders with a new vision to guide the nation through the Crisis.  These leaders might implement sweeping reforms.
• Decisive Action: Society feels pressured to take decisive action to resolve the Crisis.  This might involve wars, revolutions, or other significant endeavors that require collective effort.
• Cultural Shift: The values, norms, and priorities of society often undergo a significant transformation during this period.
• Resolution and New Order: By the end of the Crisis, the critical issues are typically resolved, though not always in a way that all members of the society find satisfactory.  The resolution then sets the stage for the next High period.

Because the interplay of generations follows an observable pattern, Howe and others see specific personas that emerge and become hallmarks of generations.   Think of the oft-noted phrase, "Hard times create strong men.  Strong men create good times.  Good times create weak men.  And weak men create hard times. “

These turnings are not just chronological periods but are also associated with generational archetypes that play specific roles:

• Prophet – Born during a High, they grow up as the increasingly indulged children of the post-crisis era, come of age during an Awakening, and become the elderly leaders during a Crisis.  (Boomers)
• Nomads – Born during an Awakening, they grow up as under-protected children, come of age during an Unraveling, and become midlife leaders during a Crisis.  (Gen X)
• Hero – Born during an Unraveling, they grow up as increasingly protected post-Awakening children, come of age during a Crisis, and become elderly leaders during the subsequent High.  (Millennial)
• Artists – Born during a Crisis, they grow up as the overprotected children of the post-crisis world, come of age during a High, and are the midlife leaders during an Awakening.  (Homeland or Gen Z)

There is undoubtedly a greater probability than zero that we will experience a major war, internal conflict, or massive recession in the next ten years.   Understanding forces that might drive these periods of events is always helpful, as are reflections that lend themselves to greater preparation, resiliency, and grit to thrive amidst such adversity. 

Nevertheless, history is not predetermined.  We make choices.  Howe's work, particularly when looking at the attributes of generations or historical events, has - by necessity- some amount of cherry-picking involved.   Additionally, given the vagaries of technology and human interactions, straight-line trends seldom self-execute without unpredictable swerves and curves.

Grab a copy of this tome, consume, reflect and prepare. 

​A study outline can be found here. saeculum_matrix.pdf

An irregular round up of interesting reads.  Most of these made me go "hmmmmm," none of them imply concurrence:

Quote of the Day:
Those who promise us paradise on earth never produced anything but a hell. – Karl Popper.

• The data is signaling a slow-down in payrolls. 
• Will notes the fascist nature of the crony “Consumer Protection Bureau.”
• Childhood health has a coloration to adult conservative versus liberal ideological outlooks.  And apparently brain scans of liberals versus conservatives are observably different.
• “Problematic news consumption” appears linked to mental health issues.
• Losing the First.  Americans increasingly seem to be falling out of love with Free Speech and prefer fascism.
• Good news!  Americans are increasingly in favor or larger families.  A hopeful trend for sure.
• Ouch.  Members of Congress behaving badly.
• Long-Covid or long con? Understanding and learning still requires the humility of real science.
• More troubling data on the use of puberty-blocking chemicals in minors.
• The Bermuda Triangle is so Boomer.  Meet the “Alaska Triangle.”
• Unhealthy for civil society:  One Party has nearly abandoned “religious” affiliation. 
• An interesting mediation on the loss of religion in communal life and the “wanting” the void creates.
• Revisiting “Sporting Excellence,” distilling 14 attributes of “greatness.”
• The relationship between a decline in “independent play” by children and later mental health is studied.
• The odd story of the TED company hating Martin Luther King.
• Why pandemics are always political – it’s an issue of institutional structure.
• A guide to the varied voices and casts in the woke/anti-woke debates.
• Elon Musk didn’t read the Constitution (shocker).  The President is merely the top administrative bureaucrat, not the nation’s CEO.
• “Liquid courage” has now an evidence-based concept.
• It was always going to be thus:  THC impairs driver safety.  And thus, maybe its ok that the young(er) are driving less given the prevalence of impairment in their system.
• Is brandishing a copy-cat value amongst officers in blue?
• Evidence abounds for the “broken window” approach to community safety.
• Exposure to blue light (think tablets or phones) has a profound impact on hormones, potentially disruptive for children.

​An irregular round-up of interesting reads.  Most of these made me go "hmmmmm," none of them imply concurrence:

QUOTE OF THE DAY:

“We shall never prevent the abuse of power if we are not prepared to limit power in a way which occasionally may also prevent its use for desirable purposes.”

From F.A. Hayek’s “The Road to Serfdom" 

• The latest World Economic Freedom ratings are out.  Spoiler alert, the U.S.A. ranks #5 behind Singapore, Hong Kong, Switzerland and New Zealand. 
• The current White House increasingly adept at covering-up, even minor racist transgressions.
•  America’s national security apparatus is the risk of dementia as threat.
• Fascinating observations.  Things that are likely are correlated to having worse mental health:
  • Parents who had a high level of education.
  • Growing up in a “lower” income household.
  • Being considered / classified as “white.”
  • Living at home.
  • On Obmacare versus private insurance. 
• The value of patience remains high. Teach it.  Practice it. 
• The EV “jobs” myth.  This is such a powerful – and expensive – example of groupthink gone awry. 
• The “cost of healthcare” doesn’t mean what you think it does.  Once again, mantras rarely equip us with insight. 
• Research suggesting that since 2000, US college educated adults have become both economically and culturally liberal while working-class voters have trended the opposite.  If true, this suggest the current realignments are likely to stabilize for a while. 
• Tracing the roots of “zero-sum game” thinking amongst US adults. 
• Thoughts on a truly pro-labor policy agenda.
• The data on which income quartile cheats the most on taxes – and the data is counterfactual to “the narrative.”
• An innovative approach to recruiting law enforcement.
• More evidence that school choice improves academic outcomes and reduces disparities.
• A vicious cycle – the demand/reward incentive – for identity-orientated media content.
• Common sense beats Freud, again.   Suppressing negative thoughts, a key step to better mental health a study concludes. 
• Apparently, the U.S. government’s role in the J6 Affair continues unphased as the FBI admits it lost count of how many informants it had in its crowd. 
• The Left of the Right. 
• Nationalism as a façade for corruption is noted here. 
• China’s debt problem is growing.
• What lit the fires of our current global craze?  Protectionism. 
• Good News!  The U.S. middle class continues to grow. 
• Charting media bias. 
• The original Originalist, Frederick Douglass. 

​An irregular round up of interesting reads.  Most of these made me go "hmmmmm," none of them imply concurrence:

Quote to ponder:

F.A. Hayek’s 1944 book, The Road to Serfdom; from chapter 5, which is titled “Planning and Democracy:"

Those most immediately interested in a particular issue are not necessarily the best judges of the interests of society as a whole. To take only the most characteristic case: when capital and labor in an industry agree on some policy of restriction and thus exploit the consumers, there is usually no difficulty about the division of the spoils in proportion to former earnings or on some similar principle. The loss which is divided between thousands or millions is usually either simply disregarded quite inadequately considered.

• Pain sensitivity’s coloration to ideological dispositions explored.
• GRE scores by profession: here. 
• Apparently, two-thirds of self-identified “liberals” cannot bring themselves to agree that two parents are generally better than one for children. 
• Revisiting the Sixth Amendment.
• A “Separation of Investment & State” a most intriguing idea.
• Projected US job growth plummets.
• Playlists from some 2024 political candidates.
• The Federal government official adopts mysticism over science.  Nuts!
• Health Insurance companies continue to demonstrate their lack of market value-add.
• Who knew!  High-pollen days can make us more unsafe and dumber?
• Heavy posters seen as more feminine.  Clearly this explains much of our current political class. 
• In an age where “diversity” gets little definition and even less understanding yet voluminous mentions, this paper adds some insight.  Namely: Diversity is good when it promotes the person or individual.  “City air sets you free,” was a principle of law but also a common proverb that in a city with many factions, none could impose their will upon all.  Or, in the America experience, the Republic moderated the democracy.  However, when diversity devolves into disunity or polarization it can foster tribalism and group conformity.  After which all sorts of ills fester from mere nuisance to outright evils. 
• Dress for success?  Apparently, it starts with dental work.
• This makes sense:  The UFO “distraction” is mostly a confluence of nepotism and lazy “journalists.”   As usual, incompetence explains most things relative to government “action.”
• America’s electric infrastructure is largely a creation of government interference in market dynamics.  This is a fact from which we cannot escape – much like “healthcare.”  So when you realize that we live dependent upon an electrical infrastructure that is fragile, be concerned.  Government did this.  They aren’t the ones who will fix it. 
• Intelligence correlated with hobbies.  Spoiler alert, collectors are more intelligent. 
•  Vexillologist Alert: Rebranding a state flag - not an easy task.

​

​An irregular round up of interesting reads.  Most of these made me go "hmmmmm," none of them imply concurrence:

• What better place to start than with some substantial book porn, here (and above). 
• The data gets more clear: WFH (work from home) employees are less productive.  More here. Yet, WFH boosts golf rounds played mid-week.  Four! 
• Keeping in mind the difference between correlation and causation, charting the delta in mental health and partisan viewpoints, here. 
• Charting the timeline on the forthcoming government Central Bank Currency, here.
• More claims spreading from the Wuhan, China lab.   
• Six states that are driving the US economy (and they are not California nor Michigan), here. 
• The health benefits of vacations appear to outlive the time-off, here. 
• America is moving (south). 
• Is Autism a death sentence in the Netherlands? 
• Voters seem to want business leaders to focus on goods-and-services and leave the politics and cultural issues to the public square, here and here. 
• After 80+ years, big government's "War on Poverty," found a failure. 
• Ouch. The military recruiting crisis is real - in unrelated news, celebrations break out in China, Iran and Russia.
• The inherit paradox of uncharitable charity studied here. 
• Culturing the "waste of time" meetings here.
• Research suggests that policy makers are slow to adjust their beliefs in the face of negative outcomes.  Reality “bites” as they say. 
• When governments hike taxes, work safety is jeopardized.  One more reason to resist the taxman.  
• The value of reading at young(er) ages, has a likely profound return.
•  Democrat Governors fail their states when it comes to firm sight selection.
• How the existing Electoral College helps protect against partisan election fraud.
• “Fake news” found to have nearly no impact on voter turnout.  A counterfactual for some for sure.  
•  Irrational exuberance: Tracking the rise of Zombie Firms.
• The harm of fads – also known as the danger of groupthink virtue signaling – as exampled by the paper straw craze. 
• Who could have guessed?  The more you know, the less anxious you are about climate “change.” 
• Ugh. Chill people!  30 million Americans support violence to stop the will of the people.​
• Family well-being fueled by gratitude, not government hand-outs.
• Election clerks seen as largely nonpartisan as they execute partisan nominated offices.
• Interesting data on the role authoritarianism plays amongst Democrat primary voters.
• Clergy and congregation political alignment surveyed.
• How to handle a pandemic?  Apparently, the best outcomes come from following the “science,” not just what a group think bunch of bureaucrats dictate.  Or simply:  Follow Sweden.  The evidence is in, the data is clear, better education, economic and health outcomes - here.

​An irregular round up of interesting reads.  Most of these made me go "hmmmmm," none of them imply concurrence

• Adam Smith still the "man!"  Here. 
• Research countering the narrative finds that college-educated parents might experience more stress parenting than non-college educated.  Shocker. 
• Choice in education drives learning and economic gains, research demonstrates.  
• Those happy in their work, produce more.  Colonel Saito wouldn't be surprised. 
• More evidence suggesting both short-term talent reductions as well as absent workers aka remote workers contribute to productivity losses, here. 
• AI is apparently coming after middle-management first, this report suggest. 
• Yet another way that government lockdowns hurt low income people is documented. 
• Apparently having a college degree nudges up longevity, study here
• The US's ill-prepared pivot to running itself on oil and coal-fueled electricity is pushing