Book Review | Ten Global Trends

TEN GLOBAL TENDS: Every Smart Person Should Know & many others you will find interesting | Ronald Bailey & Marian Tupy, Cato Institute, p196.

"Always look on the bright side of life" is an ironic Monty Python skit and decent life advice. Following this quip, two researchers compiled this book: part coffee table book, part line graph porn, fully data-laden and very optimistic.

They argue that to fix problems, you need an accurate assessment of reality. The news won’t provide it. Data does. Additionally, most people are psychologically wired to give greater importance to negative trends than positive ones (I certainly do). It's a survivor's instinct, as they say.

These data nerds categorize reality by people, health, violence, work, natural resources, US, farm, and tech trends. They find, in most ways, things are improving. They start with a top 10 trend list:

1. The Great Enrichment: World GDP and wealth is booming.
2. The End of Poverty: Two hundred years ago, 84% of the world lived in poverty; today, 8.6%.
3. Resource abundance: Access to nonrenewable resources has increased.
4. We're close to peak population (maxing out @ 10 billion, circa 2070.
5. The End of Famine: The worldwide food supply is about 2,962 calories per person daily.
6. More Land for Nature: Since 1982, the world has added 865,000 square miles of forest; forest gains are net greater than losses.
7. Planet City: Cities tend to be innovation hubs, and the population is concentrated in the urban landscape.
8. Democracy on the March: Countries qualifying as full-fledged democracies rose by 49%, while autocracies declined by 39%.
9. The Long Peace: Intrastate wars on declining.
10. A Safer World: Deaths from natural disasters have plummeted.

They have 78 trends in total. Some are worth quibbling in how they splice the data or choose a measuring stick. But all in all, it's a robust set of concrete proofs. Sadly, the good news isn't good, clickbait.